World Cup thoughts

With the first two off days of the tournament upon us and only 8 teams left I figured it was time to give my thoughts on the first 48 games played.

First of all the Germans. They have fully embraced the tournament. This may come as a surprise to some (most) of you, but this was a big concern. No game did more for this tourney in retrospect than the 4-2 Germany win over Costa Rica to start the tourney. It set the tone for an offensive tourney. It also showcased a new ball that was the talk of the first week. Since then the players have adjusted and it seems so have the goalies. A lot more goalies are punching the ball clear or conceding corners instead of attempting to catch a knuckling shot. That is what this ball does more than any other in history. If you hit it solid, with no spin then the ball will knuckle. Witness the second Czech goal on Kasey Keller for a perfect example of this. But if you hit the ball with a curve it will curve, a lot. Probably slightly less than the Euro 2004 ball that you might have noticed has never been used since that one tournament. But that was the tournament that introduced this 'fused' panel technology. No seems on that ball or this ball. I have a feeling that when we resume league play, the Nike ball will still be used by most of the big leagues. It still curves when you curve it, but it seems to be slightly more 'fair'.

Speaking of 'fair', we come to the referees. While there has been a few games that have single handedly tried to make a mockery of the World cup; Italy v USA, Italy v Australia Penalty in the 93rd minute when there should have been zero stoppage minutes and the 16 yellow card TRAVESTY that was Portugal v Netherlands second round game all come to mind; I blame FIFA more for the refereeing problems than I blame the referees. FIFA instructed the refs to crack down on two footed challenges, dissent and time wasting. Is it a surprise to anyone that the debacle that was the US Italy game was witnessed by none other than Sepp Blatter himself, the king of FIFA. Do you think that the referee was trying to impress what amounts to his boss by following directives handed down from FIFA before the tournament? Because make no mistake, there are two competitions going on here; the one that the world tunes in to watch is to see who plays in the finals, while the other is between the referees to see who is going to ref the final game. To achieve that pinnacle of their career the refs have to follow FIFA’s directives to the letter. Again is it any surprise that the US Italy game ended 10 v 9 men when you now know that the Uruguayan referee was just trying to impress his boss's boss's boss?

But I digress, on to the tourney.

In the early rounds we had some great games, Argentina's 6-0 slaughter of Serbia and Montenegro immediately comes to mind.

Mexico had an absolute gift of a draw starting off with Iran and then Angola. Then they were thumped by a depleted Portugal team that caused them to finish second in their group with only 4 points. Thus setting up the showdown, which they lost, with Argentina. This just goes to show you how important the draw is and how important it is to get one of the eight 1st seeds. The USA missed out on that seed by hundredths of points to Mexico. Too bad, we would probably still be playing with their draw.

Of the 16 teams to advance out of the group stages, 10 were European. This goes to show you how important the 'home continent advantage' is. The final 8 includes six European teams, with only Argentina and Brazil crashing the party. Of the eight #1 seeds going into the tourney, only Mexico and Spain are out. Spain lost a tough game to France in the second round. The only reason they met this early is France managed to only qualify second in their group with Switzerland, Togo and South Korea.

Of the eliminated teams, both Australia and the Netherlands deserved much better. The Dutch had a young attacking team; Robert Van Persie looked as good as anyone in the first stages of the tourney. While some people have criticized their coach and national legend, Marco Van Basten, how can you criticize the coach for the 16 yellow card and 4 red card debacle that was their second round game against Portugal. I don't think that any coach has a plan for 9 v 9 football.

The English have gotten an absolute gift by now getting to play Portugal without their field leader, Deco, their other central midfielder, Costinha, and without a fully fit Christian Ronaldo. This is the English's best chance to win the World Cup in our generation. Everything is lined up for them this year and a limping Portugal is a team they should beat. This is the World Cup where England has the right mix of players to lead them to the cup. A young stud forward that can create chances out of anything, Rooney. Beckham is still playing like Beckham, this will probably be his last World Cup as captain. But he is the undisputed leader of the team. Their main problem is that Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard are both great players that play basically the same position. This is a good problem to have. Their goalie situation has seemed to sort itself out, and the defense looks solid with John Terry and Rio Ferdinand. They even have cover if one of them gets in card trouble with Sol Campbell on the bench.Post match notes, England choked. That is the only way to put it. Portugal looked lost without their Deco and Costinha. Portugal never really threatened until the very end, even when Englad was down to 10 men for the last 30 minutes and the 30 minutes of extra time. England had at least three golden opportunities to put open shots on frame and they either wiffed or hit them directly at the goalie. In what has sadly become a trend, Englad lost in penalties. They have lost 5 of their last 6 penalty shootouts in major competitions. By missing three of their four kicks, they missed more kicks on Saturday than Germany has missed in their last six shootouts combined over the last 30 years of major competitions. The bright spot for England was Owen Hargreaves again. He was the only one to make his penalty kick and he played great throughout the game. Maybe he was fresher then his couterparts, Gerrard and Lampard, due to a shorter Bundesliga season and less European committments. But whatever the reason, he looked like the most dangerous player on the England squad. I can't stress what an opportunity that England squandered by losing the pentaly kicks, becuase later that night Brazil was eliminated by France.

The only problem is that they have Brazil sitting in their way with a likely showdown in the semi-finals. This is a Brazil team that has EVERYTHING. Combined the starting team they are playing have over 800 caps. They have experience everywhere and young talent at every position backing them up. How would Brazil's second 11 do in this cup? I wouldn't bet against them. Their only pitfall could be sticking with an aging player or two when they have younger players with much more pace on the bench. Emerson has been an icon for them, but Gilberto Silva has shored up the defense when he comes in. They have won all four games so far and we haven't even heard from the FIFA and UEFA player of the year, Ronaldinho. Both of Brazil' central midfielders, Ronaldinho and Kaka, are 26 years old. The peak time for an international football career. And with Ronaldo playing more like Ronaldo than Rotundo, they are going to be tough to beat.

The Brazil v France game is not going to be a cakewalk for Brazil. France managed to turn back the clock 8 years and beat Spain in the second round. Zi Zi is still not done. And the last time they played in the World Cup it was THE WORLD CUP FINAL, France 3-0 in Paris 1998. So this is not a sitter for Brazil. That being said, every English fan will be cheering for France.

The game of the weekend is also the first game to kick off the Quarterfinals. Germany v Argentina. The way both teams have been playing, this could be the final. Germany is playing with an attacking style that we have never seen from Germany. Their defense is a little suspect, and I doubt that they will be able to contain Argentina's 'next Maradonna' Lionel Messi. The Polish strike front of Lukas Podolski and Miroslov Klose is going to create chances for Germany. With Germany's best player of his generation, Michael Ballack, behind this strike duo they are going to score as well. This could be the match of the tourney, but I am going to have to go with the home field giving Germany the edge in a 3-2 barnburner. Jens Lehman gives up two goals for Germany and is still talked about as the man of the match, he is the difference.
Post match update, the Germans did win as predicted, but the score was tied 1-1 after regulation and then they won in the penalty kick shootout making their first four shots, while Argentina went 2 of 4. Argentina's coach lost this game for them. They have the undisputed best young player in the World in Lionel Messi, age just 19, and he did not make it on the pitch for this game. This is a player that all year at 18 years old is a regular starter for Barcelona, the best club team in the world right now. Also, Jose Perkerman, choice to try and sit on a 1-0 lead and subbed in Julio Cruz instead of Messi or their other great striker in Saviola. Pekerman should leave the stadium in a cab because he has already been fired as the coach of the team. Watching the game it was pretty obvious that if they played 10 times with Argentina's attacking lineup, Argentina would probably win 8 times. But the Germans gutted out the win and were brilliant in the shootout.
Post, Post match update, Pekerman has "quit" within the hour after the game.
The other quarterfinal today is Italy v Ukraine. This should be Australia versus Ukraine. The Aussies really got a bad break whit that penalty call in the 93rd minute. Another question to raise is where did the 3 extra minutes even come from? When that was announced I turned to the Aussie sitting next to me and could not figure where that number came from. The second half had no injuries and no goals. If the referees did extra time right, then they would not have had to blow the game with a penalty three minutes after full time.

That being said, I think that Italy is going to win a snorer 1-0. The Swiss-Ukraine nil-nil draw after 120 minutes was the least exciting game of this tourney. Even the shootout failed to compel with Ukraine making 3 or 4 and the Swiss putting a bagel on the board in a World Cup shootout. Pathetic. Thus, the winner of the Argentina v Germany game is going to get a deservedly easier route to the final then the other half of the draw. Although Italy has still only conceded one goal, to the USA!
Post match update, the Italians won 3-0. Italy scored in the 6th minute and except for one flurry where Italy's goalie Buffon was all world, they did not look threatened. As soon as the little Ukraine flurry was saved, Italy scored the second goal with in the minute and the game was effectively over. GO GERMANY in the semi's. Neither Germany or Italy looked like cup winners today. I think both England and Brazil got another gift by having Argentina eliminated.

So to summarize, I have Germany versus Italy and Brazil versus England in the semi finals. If I have to pick a final I will go with Germany holding on against the winner of the other semi final, England. I do not envision the German losing a seim final played in Dortmund. That arena has more home field advantage than any other in Germany. It is called the 'concerthall of soccer' as 80,000 people are right on top of the pitch, no track to negate the noise. Germany is undefeated, 13-0-1, in Dortmund since 1930. Only because I think that the German players will take the home field advantage to heart. This is a team that the German nation has quite suprisingly embraced wholeheartedly.